European forwarders' confidence dwindles as volumes remain weak …
European forwarders confidence dwindles as volumes remain weak
For June 2012, the Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index continued to indicate weaker air and sea volumes than would be expected for the time of year. Compared with the previous month, the index for air freight saw a marginal decline, while the index for sea freight was virtually unchanged.
The indices for the expected situation in six months indicated slightly less optimism among both air and sea forwarders than previously seen; although volumes are still expected to pick up.
The Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index is calculated based on responses from a monthly survey completed by logistics professionals. The survey questions participants as to volumes that they are currently experiencing, relative to the time of year, as well as how they expect volumes to develop over the next six months. An index value of 50 indicates no change in volumes, above 50 indicates higher volumes and an index value below 50 indicates lower volumes.
Following a minor decline in May, the air freight logistics confidence index fell further in June. The index now stands at 43.5 compared with 44.4 in the previous month. Air forwarders operating on the Europe to US trade route experienced the greatest decline in sentiment, while confidence on the Europe to Asia route saw a minor increase. Air freight forwarders were also less optimistic about the outlook, with the index for the expected situation falling to 57.8 in June from 59.1 in May.
The indices for sea freight saw little change in June, with only slight differences among trade routes. The index for the US to Europe route declined to 43.8 from 44.6 in the previous month; the lowest index score among the individual trade routes. The Europe to Asia trade lane was the only route on which forwarders expressed slightly more optimism compared with May, the index increased to 46.6 in June from 45.6 in May. In terms of the expected situation, sea forwarders also expressed little change, the overall index registered 58.2 compared with 58.5 in the previous month.
John Manners-Bell, Ti’s CEO commented, “Although forwarders are still optimistic that volumes will pick up over the coming months, the reality is that markets are still weaker than should be expected. Forwarders are confident that they will have a better second half of the year, but as yet there is little evidence for this level of positivity.”
The full results of the Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index for May 2012 can be downloaded here: http://www.transportintelligence.com/articles_papers/.1
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Source: Transport Intelligence, June 18, 2012
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